Combined DEMATEL techniques with novel MCDM for the organic light emitting diode technology selection

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Abstract

This research aims to propose a hybrid process concerning the economic and industrial prospects along with critical technology streams toward a more effective selection on new technology. The integration of fuzzy Delphi method, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, and the analytic network process (ANP) is employed to construct a technology selection model regarding the economic and industrial prospects. On the other hand, the patent co-citation approach (PCA) is applied to objectively draw key technology fields as technology alternatives for the technology selection model from patent data. The emerging organic light emitting diode (OLED) display technology is used as a case in order to verify the applicability of proposed a novel hybrid MCDM method for the best technology selection. The result of this hybrid process can help top managers of technology-based companies or policy makers of governments to more objectively and effectively determine future research and development direction.

Introduction

Technology selection is one of the most challenging decision-making areas that the management of a company encounters (Torkkeli & Tuominen, 2002). A company has to select and invest in a technology field with comparative advantage from various technology-alternatives under multiple criteria and within a complicated environment (Yu, Hsu, & Chen, 1998). Technology-based enterprises rely on the renewal of existing technological resources and exploitation of new technologies to remain competitive and to sustain growth (McNamara & Baden-Fuller, 1999). This type of firm needs expert technological planning and strategizing to maintain its competitive advantages or to grasp new opportunities. Selection of key technologies helps these firms and countries to establish their advantage in a competitive environment (Clark, 1989, Lee and Song, 2007, Morone, 1989, Torkkeli and Tuominen, 2002). At the national level, selecting and supporting key emerging technologies help countries to establish their strategic advantage in the international market (Khalil, 2000).

However, technology selection is a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) challenge (Lamb & Gregory, 1997). It is necessary for decision makers to completely consider various aspects of criteria such as potential benefit, risk, and cost, in order to determine the most suitable technologies. Furthermore, interdependent relations may exist among such criteria in real world. To address this challenging decision-making issue, this study aims to propose a hybrid technology selection process integrating the fuzzy Delphi method, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, and the analytic network process (ANP) with novel MCDM method for the best OLED (organic light emitting diode) technology selection.

The fuzzy Delphi method is applied to gather information and identify critical evaluation criteria for technology selection. The DEMATEL is used to detect and build the complex network relationship map (NRM) among dimensions/criteria. The ANP is employed to conduct the dependence and feedback among criteria and to decide the relative weights of the criteria by super-matrix. The combination of fuzzy Delphi method, DEMATEL technique, and ANP with novel MCDM method is used to perform for constructing a technology selection structure.

In addition, the increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economic problems combined with the occurrence of national or organizational budget resource restrictions imply new challenges for science and technology (Ronde, 2003). Hence, it is necessary to carefully identify key technologies which have the greatest impact on economic and industrial competitiveness. Patent data provides an effective way to learn R&D information of a specific technology and is useful for conducting an analysis on technology trend (Abraham and Morita, 2001, Liu and Shyu, 1997). Researchers can learn the R&D status of a specific industry using patent analysis and then employ this information for research planning and technology forecasting (Daim et al., 2006, Lai and Wu, 2005). In order to generate valuable information from patent data for research planning or strategy making, the first step of patent management is to classify patents based on the need of a specific industry. Lai and Wu (2005) develop the patent co-citation approach (PCA) based on the co-citation analysis of the bibliometrics to provide an overall picture of the industrial technology information via patents and to generate technology categories with more valuable information. The PCA is used to extract key technology fields as the alternatives in the technology selection structure constructed by the combination of fuzzy Delphi method, DEMATEL technique, and ANP with novel MCDM method.

The remainder of this study is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews related technology selection literature. Section 3 describes the proposed technology selection process integrating the fuzzy Delphi method, the DEMATEL, the ANP, and the PCA. In Section 4, the organic light emitting diode (OLED) technology is adopted as a case to verify the proposed novel MCDM method for technology selection process. Finally, Section 5 provides concluding remarks.

Section snippets

Technology selection

Technology as a major source of competitive advantage for manufacturing industries is widely accepted by practitioners, governments and academics. An enterprise can waste its competitive advantages by investing in wrong alternatives at the wrong time or by investing too much in the right ones (Torkkeli & Tuominen, 2002). A country can obtain its competitive advantages by investing in emerging technologies with comparative advantages (Lee and Song, 2007, Yu et al., 1998). In order to realize

Building a novel hybrid MCDM model for OLED technology selection

A novel hybrid MCDM model (combined many methods/techniques) is used to deal with complex evaluation problems for the best OLCD technology selection. Methods/techniques of novel hybrid MCDM model are included as follows: (1) the fuzzy Delphi method integrates experts’ opinions without modifying their original idea, processes the fuzziness within their thoughts and, moreover, reduces survey costs; the DEMATEL technique helps to determine relationships and construct NRM among these criteria; then

The case of OLED display technology selection

OLED display has more advantages than numerous other display technologies. The features of the OLED display are: (1) self-illuminating (that is, it needs no backlight); (2) wide viewing angle; (3) fast response (about 1 μs); (4) highly energy efficient; (5) low drive-voltage (3–10 V); (6) slim profile (smaller than 2 mm); (7) easy to use for a large area; (8) flexible; and (9) has a simple manufacturing process (Chen & Huang, 2005). These features meet the needs of both multimedia displays and

Concluding remarks

Technology selection, which is a multi-criteria decision-making problem, influences an enterprise or a country’s technological advantage or disadvantage. As mentioned in previous section, technology is a major source of competitive advantage. In order to realize the competitive advantage from technologies, it is essential for technology-based firms or governments to carefully evaluate each technology alternative. However, decision makers encounter various economic or industrial influences such

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