Approximate algorithms for credal networks with binary variables

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Abstract

This paper presents a family of algorithms for approximate inference in credal networks (that is, models based on directed acyclic graphs and set-valued probabilities) that contain only binary variables. Such networks can represent incomplete or vague beliefs, lack of data, and disagreements among experts; they can also encode models based on belief functions and possibilistic measures. All algorithms for approximate inference in this paper rely on exact inferences in credal networks based on polytrees with binary variables, as these inferences have polynomial complexity. We are inspired by approximate algorithms for Bayesian networks; thus the Loopy 2U algorithm resembles Loopy Belief Propagation, while the Iterated Partial Evaluation and Structured Variational 2U algorithms are, respectively, based on Localized Partial Evaluation and variational techniques.

Keywords

Credal networks
Loopy Belief Propagation
Variational methods
2U algorithm

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This work was conducted while the author was with Escola Politécnica, Universidade de São Paulo (Av. Prof. Mello Moraes, 2231 São Paulo, SP, Brazil).