Elsevier

Procedia Computer Science

Volume 80, 2016, Pages 2251-2255
Procedia Computer Science

Simulating Refugee Movements: Where would You Go?

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2016.05.400Get rights and content
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Abstract

The challenge of understanding refugee movements is huge and affects countries worldwide on a daily basis. Yet, in terms of simulation, the challenge appears to have been largely ignored. I argue that we as researchers can, and should, harness our computational skills to better understand and predict refugee movements. I reflect on the computational challenges of modelling refugees, and present a simulation case study example focused on the Northern Mali Conflict in 2012. Compared to UNHCR data, the simulation predicts fewer refugees moving towards Mauritania, and more refugees moving towards Niger. This outcome aligns with UNHCR reports, which mention that unregistered refugees were known to reside outside of the official camps, though further investigations are required to rule out competing theories.

Keywords

modelling
simulation
refugees
migration
agent-based modelling

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Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Programme Committee of ICCS 2016.