Confronting the risks of terrorism: making the right decisions,☆☆

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2004.04.003Get rights and content

Abstract

This report offers a methodology for assessing, quantitatively, the risks of terrorism. The purpose of the methodology is to support effective decision making to combat terrorism. The emphasis is on terrorist attacks that could have catastrophic consequences. The perspective taken is that in order to make the right decisions about combating terrorism, their needs to be a systematic means of assessing the likelihood of such attacks. A process of implementation of the decisions resulting from risk assessment is essential. That process includes (1) an understanding of the nature of the threat, (2) an information system linked directly to ‘intelligence’ on terrorism, and (3) organizational structures that can take timely, coordinated, and effective actions. There must also be sound evidence that the methodology can be successfully applied. A description of the nature of terrorism, a terrorism risk assessment methodology, information requirements to fight terrorism, and recommendations for successful implementation is what this report is about.

Section snippets

A nation challenged

On September 11, 2001, the United States was attacked, not by a rival state, but by a terrorist network. This single attack not only inflicted thousands of casualties and significant economic damage, but also profoundly changed the way Americans see themselves, their government, and their national security. The traditional dichotomy between domestic and international terrorism is no longer relevant. With improvised weapons of mass destruction and traditional weapons used in nontraditional ways,

Risk management in brief

Risk-management analysis technologies include methods of quantitative analysis that can be applied in the assessment of terrorist-initiated events. The study group believes that the risk-management sciences can provide a basis for allocating investments to improve homeland security. Risk-management techniques have been successfully applied in other fields to assess technological risks and external threats and low-probability, high-consequence events. In this section, the basic concepts of risk

The foundation for quantitative risk assessment

This section reviews a few of the basic concepts of QRA. The goal is to give the reader an understanding of what is involved in assessing the risk of terrorist attacks using well known quantitative techniques in preparation for the sample application provided in Section 4.

Assessing threats and vulnerabilities: a sample application

The purpose of this section is to provide an example that demonstrates some of the key features of the methodology described in 2 Overview of quantitative risk assessment (QRA), 3 The foundation for quantitative risk assessment. Because it is not possible to include or summarize an actual risk assessment of a terrorist attack (for reasons of security, resource limitations, availability, etc.), a hypothetical but realistic example is used to show how the major steps of a QRA are implemented.

The information foundation for QRA

In this section, several issues are addressed associated with information pertinent to risk assessment and the institutional environment from which the necessary information originates. First, the new US Department of Homeland Security is responsible for establishing organizational arrangements, roles, and processes to protect Americans and their infrastructure. The department will serve as matrix manager of the activities of its agencies and as coordinator of interagency activities. The key to

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  • Cited by (0)

    The study resulting in this report was initiated by The National Academy of Engineering of the United States and was conducted by a study group with a wide range of expertise in issues relating to risk and terrorism. A decision was ultimately made not to publish the report as an Academy document but rather as a personal statement by the individual authors. They, and not the Academy, are solely responsible for its content.

    ☆☆

    The authors used the services of three consultants: Raphael Perl, US Congressional Research Services, Washington, DC, USA; Stanley Kaplan, Bayesian Systems, Inc., Gaithersburg, MD, USA; and John W. Stetkar, Independent Consultant, El Toro, CA, USA.

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