Scientific foundations of addressing risk in complex and dynamic environments
Section snippets
Introduction and scope
Development, deployment and application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and digital infrastructure in the petroleum-related activity on the Norwegian shelf continue with unabated intensity. This line of development towards what is denoted Integrated Operations (IO) is among other things contributing to new ways for organizing work, new work processes and increased automation, e.g. closer collaboration offshore–onshore, cooperation across organizational and geographical borders
An integrated view of Integrated Operations
Looking more closely into IO, we find that it is not a very coherent and unambiguous “packet” of changes or elements. “IO” as we talk about it today have been given other names before (e.g. “remote control” that give some unfortunate connotations for a lot of the actors). Though it is possible to make a stronghold or gravity point out of the word “integrated”, we observe and expect that, alas, IO will mean different things, both now and further on. We thus need a more flexible understanding of
Complexity and the “wildness in wait”
So, what is complexity in a risk perspective? Klinke and Renn [9] defines complexity as the difficulty of identifying and quantifying causal links between a multitude of potential causal agents and specific observed effects, due to interactive effects (synergism and antagonism). However, as their focus is at a higher (societal) level compared to the business/industry focus of IO that we want to address in this paper, and because Klinke and Renn ([9]) do not pay too much attention to
Exploring the implications for addressing risk
Aven [14] not only rejects the classical approach, but also the classical Bayesian approach which he asserts is not very different, particularly because it maintains the focus on fictional parameters. Aven advocates an approach in which the focus is on observable quantities, and subjective expert opinions expressed through a probabilistic language, however without any claim of reference to a “real” probability. This approach is meant to serve the purpose of seeing beyond probabilities and
Conclusion
The RIO project have framed (ICT-induced) complexity as an important issue for risk assessment in relation to Integrated Operations (IO). We have found that the notion of “wildness in wait” defined a century ago actually captures an essence that will be instrumental in using complexity theory in a productive manner for risk governance related to IO.
Taking Aven's [14] premise that we should not put more emphasis on the predictions and assessments of risk analysis than what can be justified by
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