Elsevier

Theoretical Computer Science

Volume 410, Issue 41, 15 September 2009, Pages 4067-4084
Theoretical Computer Science

An analysis of the exponential decay principle in probabilistic trust models

This paper is dedicated to Professor Mogens Nielsen on the occasion of his 60th birthday, who along the years shared with us research and much more. To your sharpness of mind and kindness of spirit.
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Abstract

Research in models for experience-based trust management has either ignored the problem of modelling and reasoning about dynamically changing principal behaviour, or provided ad hoc solutions to it. Probability theory provides a foundation for addressing this and many other issues in a rigorous and mathematically sound manner. Using Hidden Markov Models to represent principal behaviours, we focus on computational trust frameworks based on the ‘beta’ probability distribution and the principle of exponential decay, and derive a precise analytical formula for the estimation error they induce. This allows potential adopters of beta-based computational trust frameworks and algorithms to better understand the implications of their choice.

Keywords

Trust
Computational trust
Probabilistic trust models
Hidden Markov Models
Decay principle
Beta distribution

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