Skip to main content
Log in

Optimal sequential forestry decisions under risk

  • Published:
Annals of Operations Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper is a summary of central and typical concepts, ideas and results in the field of sequential optimization and stochastic phenomena in forestry. The sequential optimization methods can be applied to all forestry decisions. The text covers forestry decisions and forest economics issues that are based on sequential decision making. An illustration covers optimal decisions in the presence of stochastic market prices. Stochastic (and/or deterministic but for different reasons unpredictable) changes in the economic and physical environments can be considered in decision making over time as soon as they are revealed. For this reason, the information and decision processes are sequential.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. R. Bellman, Dynamic Programming (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1957).

    Google Scholar 

  2. J. Buongiorno, A generalization of Faustmann's formula for stochastic forest growth and price, Paper presented at the International Symposium, 150 years of the Faustmann formula. The consequences for forestry and economics in the past, present and future, Darmstadt, Germany (October 3-6, 1999) available via http://www.lsu.edu/guests/sjchang/Faustmann.html.

  3. D.R. Carter and D.H. Newman, The impact of reserve prices in sealed bid federal timber sale auctions, Forest Science 44(4) (November 1998) 485–495.

    Google Scholar 

  4. P. Gong, Determining the optimal planting density and land expectation value - A numerical evaluation of decision model, Forest Science 44(3) (August 1998) 356–364.

    Google Scholar 

  5. P. Lohmander, Continuous extraction under risk, IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Systems and Decisions Sciences, WP-86-16 (March 1986).

  6. P. Lohmander, The economics of forest management under risk, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Dept. of Forest Economics, Report 79, Doctoral dissertation (1987) 311 p.

  7. P. Lohmander, Pulse extraction under risk and a numerical forestry application, IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Systems and Decision Sciences, WP-87-49 (June 1987).

  8. P. Lohmander, Ekonomiskt optimal avverkning med hansyn till stormfallningar, Skogsbrukets Ekonomi, Skogsfakta Konferens, No. 11 (1988) 32–37.

  9. P. Lohmander, Continuous extraction under risk, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 5(2) (1988) 131–151.

    Google Scholar 

  10. P. Lohmander, Pulse extraction under risk and a numerical forestry application, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 5(4) (1988) 339–354.

    Google Scholar 

  11. P. Lohmander, Stochastic dynamic programming with a linear programming subroutine: Application to adaptive planning and coordination in the forest industry enterprise, in: Scandinavian Forest Economics, ed. P. Lohmander, No. 31 (1989) 51 p.

  12. P. Lohmander, A quantitative adaptive optimization model for resource harvesting in a stochastic environment, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 7(1) (1990) 29–49.

    Google Scholar 

  13. P. Lohmander, Flexibilitet - en ledstjarna for all ekonomisk skoglig planering, Skogsfakta, Inventering och Ekonomi, No. 23 (1990) 4 p.

  14. P. Lohmander, The multi species forest stand, stochastic prices and adaptive selective thinning, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 9 (1992) 229–250.

    Google Scholar 

  15. P. Lohmander, The optimal dynamic production and stock levels under the influence of stochastic demand and production cost functions: Theory and application to the pulp industry enterprise, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 10, Issue 2 (1992).

  16. P. Lohmander, Economic two stage multi period species management in a stochastic environment: The value of selective thinning options and stochastic growth parameters, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 11 (1993) 287–302.

    Google Scholar 

  17. P. Lohmander, Decision optimization with stochastic simulation subroutines: Relation to analytical optimization of capacity investment and production, Presented at the 4th International Conference of Systems Analysis and Simulation 1992, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 10 (1993) 279–314.

    Google Scholar 

  18. P. Lohmander, Adaptive decision making in forestry, in: Proceedings from International Symposium on Systems Analysis and Management Decisions in Forestry, Valdivia, Chile, March 9-12, 1993, ed. G. Paredes, Forest Management and Planning in a Competitive and Environmentally Conscious World (1994) pp. 411–421.

  19. P. Lohmander, The economically optimal number of plants, the damage probability and the stochastic round wood market, in: Proceedings from International Symposium on Systems Analysis and Management Decisions in Forestry, Valdivia, Chile, March 9-12, 1993, ed. G. Paredes, Forest Management and Planing in a Competitive and Environmentally Conscious World (1994) pp. 290–314.

  20. P. Lohmander, Adaptive transportation and production in a multi factory forest company with regionally distributed stochastic round wood prices, in: Proceedings from the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Denmark, November 1993, eds. F. Helles and M. Linddal, Scandinavian Forest Economics, No. 35 (1994) pp. 131–140.

  21. P. Lohmander, Qualitative conclusions in dynamic resource economics and the consequences of alternative models, in: Proceedings from the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Denmark, November 1993, eds. F. Helles and M. Linddal, Scandinavian Forest Economics, No. 35 (1994) pp. 153–164.

  22. P. Lohmander, Expansion dynamics and non cooperative decisions in stochastic markets: Theory and pulp industry application, in: Proceedings from the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Denmark, November 1993, eds. F. Helles and M. Linddal, Scandinavian Forest Economics, No. 35 (1994) pp. 141–152.

  23. P. Lohmander, Reservation price models in forest management: Errors in the estimation of probability density function parameters and optimal adjustment of the bias free point estimates, Management Systems for a Global Forest Economy with Global Resource Concerns, eds. D. Brodie and J. Sessions, Society of American Foresters, Asilomar, CA, September 1994, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA (1995) pp. 439–456.

  24. P. Lohmander, Optimization of decentralized adaptive truck decision rules: A spatial dynamic stochastic forest company problem, in: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Mekrijärvi, Finland, Mars 1996, ed. O. Saastamoinen and S. Tikka, Scandinavian Forest Economics 36 (1997) pp. 73–87.

  25. P. Lohmander, The constrained probability orbit of mixed strategy games with marginal adjustment: General theory and timber market application, Systems Analysis - Modeling - Simulation 29 (1997) 27–55.

    Google Scholar 

  26. P. Lohmander, Economically optimal harvesting over time, forest act constraints, economies of scale in harvesting operations and stochastic markets, in: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Umeå, Sweden, May-June 1998, ed. P. Lohmander, Scandinavian Forest Economics, No. 37 (1999) p. 9.

  27. P. Lohmander, Alternative versions of the Faustmann problem and corresponding optimal solutions, Paper presented at the International Symposium, 150 years of the Faustmann formula. The consequences for forestry and economics in the past, present and future, Darmstadt, Germany (October 3-6, 1999) p. 16, available via http://www.sekon.SLU.se/~PLO/Fausymp/AltFau10.htm.

  28. R.E. Markland, Topics in Management Science, 3rd edn (Wiley, 1989).

  29. C.J. Norstrom, A stochastic model for the growth period decision in forestry, Swedish Journal of Economics (1975).

  30. J. Risvand, A stochastic model for the cutting policy decision in forestry, Agricultural University of Norway, Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 55 (1976).

  31. H.M. Wagner, Principles of Operations Research with Applications to Managerial Decisions, 2nd edn (Prentice-Hall, 1975).

  32. W.L. Winston, Operations Research - Applications and Algorithms, 3rd edn (Duxbury, ITP, CA, 1994).

  33. R. Yin and D.H. Newman, Optimal timber rotation with evolving prices and costs revisited, Forest Science 41(3) (1995) 477–490.

    Google Scholar 

  34. R. Yin and D.H. Newman, A note on the tree-cutting problem in a stochastic environment, Journal of Forest Economics 1(2) (1995) 181–190.

    Google Scholar 

  35. W. Zhou, Optimal method and optimal intensity in reforestation, Doctoral thesis, Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Sueciae, Silvestria 110 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lohmander, P. Optimal sequential forestry decisions under risk. Annals of Operations Research 95, 217–228 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018918627946

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018918627946

Keywords

Navigation