A new technique of non‐linear statistic prediction and its application in atmospheric systems

To forecast the path of tropic cyclones by using a non‐linear statistical forecasting technique – the method of successive analogy.

Non‐linear statistical forecasting models can describe the non‐linear relationship between the factors and the forecasting objects and the real atmospheric movement more accurately, so they usually have stronger forecasting capability. In practice, however, it is shown that the relationships between predictors and predictands sometimes are so complex that it is very difficult or even impossible to establish the kind of non‐linear mathematical model. Therefore, it is an important topic for atmospheric science to solve non‐linear prediction problem of atmospheric systems by using the non‐function model approach.

The objective and quantitative prediction of tropical cyclone moving path can be given by using the method of successive analogy, a non‐linear forecasting technique, and calculating the similarity parameters between the grayscale field and the height field.

Further experiments are needed to verify this technique.

A very useful technique for solving non‐linear problem.

Illustrates the new technique of solving non‐linear statistic problem and its application.