The study on the coupling model of unconventional incidents

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to realize a complete analysis at scenario deduction of unconventional incidents coupling based on the GERTS network method.

Starting from the manifestation of coupling objects, three types of emergency coupling are analyzed according to different rules, which are “events‐events” coupling, “event‐factors” coupling and “factors‐factors” coupling. Then the coupling mechanism for emergency is focused on analyzing, and the concepts of three types of coupling are put forward, at the same time, three quantitative models for coupling mechanisms are present. Also, a case was discussed to verify the analysis of coupling mechanism of emergency.

According to the types of factors rules, the classes of coupling of emergency have been divided into three types. The coupling mechanism of emergency can be used to describe the novel coupling models.

This research provides the method for coupling analysis in the scenario of unconventional incidents and guides the emergency managers to develop contingency strategies.

The paper succeeds in constructing a novel coupling model for emergency, and it could provide an effective tool for a quantitative study on unconventional incidents coupling.