Grey prediction model‐based food security early warning prediction
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to make an evaluation and early warning prediction using grey prediction models and the index of process ability.
Design/methodology/approach
An early warning prediction for food security risk is proposed in this paper. A quality index is constructed and an improved grey prediction model is also presented. The quality index model is applied to measure the level of food quality; then the grey prediction model is applied to predict the trend of quality index for food in the future. A comparison between the predicted trends and standard limit proposed by experts is made to judge the food security risk.
Findings
The results in this paper indicate that more attention should be paid to the food security situation and steps should also should be taken to prevent harm to people's health from food.
Practical implications
The method presented in the paper could be used to make predictions for those systems which have the characteristic of small sample and poor information. The combination of grey prediction model and process ability index could also be applied to evaluation and early warning for those systems.
Originality/value
Food quality index is constructed for evaluating food security and an improved grey prediction model is also presented in this paper. The combination of these two models could be applied to make evaluation and warning prediction for food security risk with poor information.
Keywords
Citation
Wang, Y., Tang, J. and Cao, W. (2012), "Grey prediction model‐based food security early warning prediction", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 13-23. https://doi.org/10.1108/20439371211197631
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2012, Emerald Group Publishing Limited