Dynamical analysis on influencing factors of grain production in Henan province based on grey systems theory

The purpose of this paper is to realize dynamical grey incidence order of influencing factors of grain production in Henan province using grey systems theory.

Starting from choosing influence factors on grain production and dividing the 30 years (from 1979 to 2009 year) of grain production in Henan province into three periods, the authors calculate grey incidence degree between grain yield and every influencing factor by grey incidence analysis method, respectively, then obtain the grey incidence order of influencing factors in every period. Also based on the three grey incidence orders from different periods, the authors find a changeable tendency of influencing factors on grain production and key influencing factors on grain production in different periods. Finally, to keep Henan province grain production stable and sustainable, several policy suggestions are given.

The results are convincing: it is effective and powerful to analyze dynamically influencing factors of grain production using grey systems theory, and it is urgent to strengthen agricultural science and technology input, and pay close attention to the influence of dosage of pesticide and fertilizers on grain production.

Grey incidence analysis and findings exposed in the paper can be used by agricultural firms to optimize grain production plans, and by government to formulate reasonable agricultural production policies.

The paper succeeds in getting dynamical grey incidence order of influencing factors of grain production in Henan province using grey systems theory.