Export injury early warning of the new energy industries in China: A combined application of GM(1,1) and PCA methods

In recent years, continuous expansion of the scale of the new energy export industry in China caused a boycott of American and European countries. Export injury early warning research is an urgent task to develop the new energy industry in China. The purpose of this paper is to build an indicator system of exports injury early warning of the new energy industry in China and corresponding quantitative early warning models.

In consideration of the actual condition of the new energy industry in China, this paper establishes an indicator system according to four aspects: export price, export quantity, impact on domestic industry and impact on macro economy. Based on the actual data of new energy industry and its five sub-industries (solar, wind, nuclear power, smart grid and biomass) in China from 2003 to 2013, GM (1,1) model is used to predict early warning index values for 2014-2018. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used to obtain the comprehensive early warning index values for 2003-2018. The 3-sigma principle is used to divide the early warning intervals according to the comprehensive early warning index values for 2003-2018 and their standard deviation. Finally, this paper determines alarm degrees for 2003-2018.

Overall export condition of the new energy industry in China is a process from cold to normal in 2003-2013, and the forecast result shows that it will be normal from 2014 to 2018. The export condition of the solar energy industry experienced a warming process, tended to be normal, and the forecast result shows that it will also be normal in 2014-2018. The biomass and other new energy industries and nuclear power industry show a similar development process. Export condition of the wind energy industry is relatively unstable, and it will be partially hot in 2014-2018, according to the forecast result. As for the smart grid industry, the overall export condition of it is normal, but it is also unstable, in few years it will be partially hot or partially cold. The forecast result shows that in 2014-2018, it will maintain the normal state. In general, there is a rapid progress in the export competitiveness of the new energy industry in China in the recent decade.

Export injury early warning research of the new energy industry can help new energy companies to take appropriate measures to reduce trade losses in advance. It can also help the relevant government departments to adjust industrial policies and optimize the new energy industry structure.

This paper constructs an index system that can measure the alarm degrees of the new energy industry. By combining the GM (1,1) model and the PCA method, the problem of warning condition detection under small sample data sets is solved.