Study on unbiased interval grey number prediction model with new information priority
Grey Systems: Theory and Application
ISSN: 2043-9377
Article publication date: 22 October 2019
Issue publication date: 14 January 2020
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to construct an unbiased interval grey number prediction model with new information priority for dealing with the jumping errors from difference equation to the differential equation in the prediction model of interval grey number.
Design/methodology/approach
First, this study obtains a set of linear equations about the model parameters by taking the minimum error sum of squares between the accumulative sequence and its simulation values as criterion, and solves them on the basis of the Crammer rule. Then, according to the new information priority principle, it selects the last number of the accumulated generation sequence as the initial value and gives the expression of the time response function by the recursive iteration method to establish the interval grey number prediction model.
Findings
This paper provides an unbiased interval grey number prediction model with new information priority, and the example analysis shows that the method proposed in this paper has higher prediction precision and practicality.
Research limitations/implications
If there is a better method to whiten the interval grey number, so as to fully tap the grey information contained in it, the accuracy of the model will be higher.
Practical implications
The model proposed in this paper can avoid the error caused by jumping from difference equation to differential equation and make full use of new information. It can be better used in a problem where new information has a great influence on prediction results.
Originality/value
This paper selects the last number of the accumulated generation sequence as the initial value and gives the expression of the time response function by the recursive iteration method. Then, it constructs an unbiased interval grey number prediction model with new information priority.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Research General Project of Henan Colleges and Universities (No. 2020-ZDJH-140); Key Scientific Research Projects of Colleges and Universities in Henan Province (20A630015). This work is partially funded by Henan Province Soft Science Research Plan Project (182400410375).
Citation
Li, Y. and Li, J. (2020), "Study on unbiased interval grey number prediction model with new information priority", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 10 No. 1, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-06-2019-0018
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited