Improved GM(1, 1) model based on concave sequences and its applications
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to improve the GM(1, 1) model based on concave sequences.
Design/methodology/approach
First, the restored sequence of the GM(1, 1) model is proved to be convex, and the residual characters of the GM(1, 1) model for concave sequences are analyzed. Second, two symmetry transformations are introduced to transform an original concave sequence into a convex sequence, and then the GM(1, 1) model is established based on the convex sequence.
Findings
Compared with the traditional modeling method, the new method has high accuracy and is applicable for all concave sequence modeling.
Practical implications
Two cases are used to illustrate the superiority of this modeling method. Case A is to predict China’s per capita natural gas consumption, and case B is to predict the annual output of an oilfield.
Originality/value
The application scope of GM (1, 1) model is greatly extended.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The relevant research done for this paper has been supported by the key topic of the Oil and Gas Development Research Center of Sichuan Province (No. SKA-02) and the natural fund of the Department of Education of Sichuan Province (No. 14ZB0388).
Citation
Kong, X., Zhang, P. and Ma, X. (2017), "Improved GM(1, 1) model based on concave sequences and its applications", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 7 No. 3, pp. 343-352. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-07-2017-0018
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2017, Emerald Publishing Limited