Development of a direct NGM(1,1) prediction model based on interval grey numbers
Grey Systems: Theory and Application
ISSN: 2043-9377
Article publication date: 3 March 2021
Issue publication date: 3 January 2022
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to construct an interval grey number NGM(1,1) direct prediction model (abbreviated as IGNGM(1,1)), which need not transform interval grey numbers sequences into real number sequences, and the Markov model is used to optimize residual sequences of IGNGM(1,1) model.
Design/methodology/approach
A definition equation of IGNGM(1,1) model is proposed in this paper, and its time response function is solved by recursive iteration method. Next, the optimal weight of development coefficients of two boundaries is obtained by genetic algorithm, which is designed by minimizing the average relative error based on time weighted. In addition to that, the Markov model is used to modify residual sequences.
Findings
The interval grey numbers’ sequences can be predicted directly by IGNGM(1,1) model and its residual sequences can be amended by Markov model. A case study shows that the proposed model has higher accuracy in prediction.
Practical implications
Uncertainty and volatility information is widespread in practical applications, and the information can be characterized by interval grey numbers. In this paper, an interval grey numbers direct prediction model is proposed, which provides a method for predicting the uncertainty information in the real world.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this paper is to propose an IGNGM(1,1) model which can realize interval grey numbers prediction without transforming them into real number and solve the optimal weight of integral development coefficient by genetic algorithm so as to avoid the distortion of prediction results. Moreover, the Markov model is used to modify residual sequences to further improve the modeling accuracy.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the Soft Science Research Plan Project of Henan Province (No. 182400410375); Humanities and Social Sciences Research General Project of Henan Colleges and Universities (No.2020-ZDJH-140); Key Scientific Research Projects of Colleges and Universities in Henan Province (No.20A630015).
Citation
Li, Y., Ding, Y., Jing, Y. and Guo, S. (2022), "Development of a direct NGM(1,1) prediction model based on interval grey numbers", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 12 No. 1, pp. 60-77. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-07-2020-0097
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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