Setting the boundaries of COVID-19 lockdown relaxation measures
ISSN: 0737-8831
Article publication date: 27 July 2021
Issue publication date: 13 September 2021
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple deterministic model that quantifies previously adopted preventive measures driven by the trend of the reported number of deaths in both Italy and India. In addition, the authors forecast the spread based on some selected quantified preventive measures. The optimal exiting policy is derived using the inverse dynamics of the model. Furthermore, the model developed by the authors is dependent on the daily number of deaths; as such, it is sensitive to the death rate but remains insensitive to trends in deaths.
Design/methodology/approach
In the wake of COVID-19, policymakers and health professionals realized the limitations and shortcomings of current healthcare systems and pandemic response policies. The need to revise global and national pandemic response mechanisms has been thrust into the public spotlight. To this end, the authors devise an approach to identify the most suitable governmental non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies, previously adopted in a community, country or region that serve as the foundation for most pandemic strategies.
Findings
Leveraging Italy, the authors compare the aftermath by considering three scenarios: (a) recently adopted preventive measures, (b) strictest preventive measures previously adopted, and (c) the optimal exiting policy. In comparison to the second scenario, the authors estimate about twice the number of recoveries and deaths within five months under the first scenario and about 80 times more under the optimal scenario. Whereas in India, the authors applied one scenario of recently adopted preventative measures to showcase the rapid turnaround of their model. According to the new timeline, almost 90% of all deaths in India could have been prevented if the policies implemented in April 2021 were put in place three months prior, i.e. in January 2021.
Originality/value
The novelty of the proposed approach is in the use of inverse dynamics of a simple deterministic model that allows capturing the trend of contact rate as a function of adopted NPIs, regardless of pandemic type.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
Author contributions: S.S.S conceived the project, developed the model and its coding. R.S., M.A., R.H.F., K.S. and S.S.Jr. contributed equally to the write-up of the manuscript, data analysis and the development of the figures.
Conflicts of interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Citation
Saab, S., Al Abbas, M., Samaha, R.N., Jaafar, R., Saab, K.K. and Saab Jr, S.S. (2021), "Setting the boundaries of COVID-19 lockdown relaxation measures", Library Hi Tech, Vol. 39 No. 3, pp. 873-887. https://doi.org/10.1108/LHT-03-2021-0095
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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