In this research, we propose a probabilistic dialogue modeling method for persuasive dialogue systems that interact with the user based on a specific goal, and lead the user to take actions that the system intends from candidate actions satisfying the user's needs. As a baseline system, we develop a dialogue model assuming the user makes decisions based on preference. Then we improve the model by introducing methods to guide the user from topic to topic. We evaluate the system knowledge and dialogue manager in a task that tests the system's persuasive power, and find that the proposed method is effective in this respect.