Forecast UPC-level FMCG demand, Part II: Hierarchical reconciliation | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

Forecast UPC-level FMCG demand, Part II: Hierarchical reconciliation


Abstract:

In a big data enabled environment, manufacturers and distributors may have access to previously unobserved retailer-level demand related information. This additional info...Show More

Abstract:

In a big data enabled environment, manufacturers and distributors may have access to previously unobserved retailer-level demand related information. This additional information can be considered in demand forecasting to produce more accurate forecasts, and thus enable better stock-outs management. In Part II of this two-part paper, we explore the hierarchical nature of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) demand (represented by sales) time series and produce one week ahead rolling forecasts on universal product code (UPC) level (or distributor level, as per our definition below). We show that the hierarchical forecasting framework has significant accuracy improvement over the conventional univariate forecasting methods. The main reason of the observed improvements is due to the price and promotion information available at the retailer level, which is assumed to be unknown to the distributor. To reconcile forecasts according to the hierarchy, only the forecast values at retailer level are needed, the business strategies of individual retailers remain proprietary. A freely available dataset is considered to encourage further exploration. Data exploratory analysis and visualization tools are discussed in Part I of the paper.
Date of Conference: 29 October 2015 - 01 November 2015
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 28 December 2015
ISBN Information:
Conference Location: Santa Clara, CA, USA

Contact IEEE to Subscribe

References

References is not available for this document.