It is well known that topology information from nodes that are many hops away has little impact on the selection of the next hop. Hazy-sighted routing and fish-eye routing attempt to take advantage of this behavior in order to reduce overhead without impacting path stretch, which is the increase in the number of hops a packet travels as a result of stale topology information. However, these previous efforts failed to quantify the impact of their approach on path stretch. This paper develops a model of the path stretch as a function of stale topology information. To this end, we find a Markov model that describes the quality of packet forwarding, where jumps occur with some probability whenever the topology changes. From this Markov model, a precise model of path stretch can be derived, and a new and less optimistic view of hazy-sighted flooding emerges.