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Copulas-based ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks for forecasting real world time series | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

Copulas-based ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks for forecasting real world time series


Abstract:

Time series combined forecasters have been superior to the respective single models in statistical terms. In this way, the linear combination functions, e.g. the simple a...Show More

Abstract:

Time series combined forecasters have been superior to the respective single models in statistical terms. In this way, the linear combination functions, e.g. the simple average (SA) and the minimal variance (MV) approaches, have been the main alternatives for aggregation in the literature. In this work, it is proposed a copulas-based method for combining biased single models. Copulas are multivariate functions that operate on marginal probability distributions, allowing one to model the forecasters errors and then the dependence among them: a typical divide-and-conquer framework that can result in nonlinear accurate combined forecasters. The performance of the copulas-based combination method is assessed by means of a comparison with SA and MV models, based on two financial time series.
Date of Conference: 24-29 July 2016
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 03 November 2016
ISBN Information:
Electronic ISSN: 2161-4407
Conference Location: Vancouver, BC, Canada

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