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Kalman-SSM: Modeling Long-Term Time Series With Kalman Filter Structured State Spaces | IEEE Journals & Magazine | IEEE Xplore

Kalman-SSM: Modeling Long-Term Time Series With Kalman Filter Structured State Spaces


Abstract:

In the field of time series forecasting, time series are often considered as linear time-varying systems, which facilitates the analysis and modeling of time series from ...Show More

Abstract:

In the field of time series forecasting, time series are often considered as linear time-varying systems, which facilitates the analysis and modeling of time series from a structural state perspective. Due to the non-stationary nature and noise interference in real-world data, existing models struggle to predict long-term time series effectively. To address this issue, we propose a novel model that integrates the Kalman filter with a state space model (SSM) approach to enhance the accuracy of long-term time series forecasting. The Kalman filter requires recursive computation, whereas the SSM approach reformulates the Kalman filtering process into a convolutional form, simplifying training and enhancing model efficiency. Our Kalman-SSM model estimates the future state of dynamic systems for forecasting by utilizing a series of time series data containing noise. In real-world datasets, the Kalman-SSM has demonstrated competitive performance and satisfactory efficiency in comparison to state-of-the-art (SOTA) models.
Published in: IEEE Signal Processing Letters ( Volume: 31)
Page(s): 2470 - 2474
Date of Publication: 10 September 2024

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