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A method for elicitation and combination of imprecise probabilities: A mathematical programming approach | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

A method for elicitation and combination of imprecise probabilities: A mathematical programming approach


Abstract:

In this paper, a method of elicitation and expert aggregation, supported by existing models in the literature, is developed. To avoid cognitive problems resulting from nu...Show More

Abstract:

In this paper, a method of elicitation and expert aggregation, supported by existing models in the literature, is developed. To avoid cognitive problems resulting from numerical judgment, comparative judgment of probability is used in the elicitation process, where the best way to represent the data is admitted to be by imprecise probability models. In this sense, a linear programming model is used to convert such judgment into probability intervals. For the aggregation of experts, a quadratic programming model is used, where the use of different metrics to represent the weights will be discussed.
Date of Conference: 05-08 October 2014
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 04 December 2014
Electronic ISBN:978-1-4799-3840-7
Print ISSN: 1062-922X
Conference Location: San Diego, CA, USA

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