A combination forecasting model using machine learning and Kalman filter for statistical arbitrage | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

A combination forecasting model using machine learning and Kalman filter for statistical arbitrage


Abstract:

In this paper we evaluate the combination of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) with a Kalman filter regression model for financial time s...Show More

Abstract:

In this paper we evaluate the combination of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) with a Kalman filter regression model for financial time series forecasting. We also compare the forecast performance with a set of linear regression combination methods. The application of the traditional Kalman Filter for the statistical arbitrage strategy improves the statistical performance of ELM and SVR individual forecasts. The accuracy of the models is statistically tested and an investigation is performed to confirm the impact of the forecasts combination in terms of annualized returns and volatility.
Date of Conference: 05-08 October 2014
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 04 December 2014
Electronic ISBN:978-1-4799-3840-7
Print ISSN: 1062-922X
Conference Location: San Diego, CA, USA

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