This article investigates the path dependence and market choice challenges encountered during the progression of industrial intelligent development. We propose a novel industrial economic theory framework that incorporates the opportunity cost of intelligent technology. This study also examines the semiconductor industry's typical cases and Germany's Industry 4.0 growth to analyze the path dependence of industrial intelligent development. Through constructing a benefit–payment matrix, the problem of market choice in decision-making related to industrial intelligence is analyzed from the viewpoint of various actors. The findings reveal path dependence in the growth of industrial intelligence, leading to a self-reinforcing tendency toward monopoly. An analysis of the payment matrix demonstrates the variability in market outcomes for technology competitors characterized by constant, decreasing, and increasing returns. This article presents a preliminary investigation of the theoretical basis of smart economics and provides a rationale for the government-led and regulated development of artificial intelligence industries.