Atmospheric ice accretion is considered a severe safety issue for technical systems such as communication infrastructure, power lines, blades of wind turbines, and so on in cold climate regions. Among different sensing systems to detect and provide reliable information about the state of ice, capacitive sensing has been reported as a suitable technique. In capacitive sensing, measured capacitances are influenced due to ice accretion. Signal processing for ice sensors requires to estimate parameters for the state of ice from the data. In this paper, we present a model-based estimation approach for capacitive ice sensors. We analyze different electrode topologies for ice sensing and provide a statistical analysis of the sensor behavior. We hereby consider the random nature of natural ice accretion. From simulations, we show how a statistical model for the measurement process can be derived and demonstrate the construction of estimation algorithms within the Bayesian framework. We will demonstrate the capability of our approach for automated ice detection by means of long-term field data showing the ability to estimate ice layers with a precision better than 1 mm.