Jayati Deshmukh
ABSTRACT
Spread of COVID-19 has had a devastating impact in almost all countries with 24 million confirmed cases and 0.8 million deaths (as of 30 August 2020)1. This in turn has lead to a catastrophic damage to the global economy. Numerous efforts are in progress across the world to control the pandemic. Multiple strategies to control and limit the spread of this virus are being tried out by Government agencies of various countries. Trend analysis of the infection spread can provide critical inputs to develop intervention measures. To analyse COVID-19 spread, we present an interactive simulator that implements an extension of well known SEIR model for epidemic spread, integrated with network diffusion models and different kinds of community interaction models. The simulator is currently implemented over datasets from two regions in India: Bangalore city and Karnataka state. The simulator provides user control of varying multiple data, region and model specific parameters. Results are presented in the form of interactive heatmaps highlighting the spatial distribution, and line plots showing temporal evolution of the disease. Hence, the simulator captures the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, providing a comprehensive picture of the pandemic in a region over a selected time period.
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