As a guest user you are not logged in or recognized by your IP address. You have
access to the Front Matter, Abstracts, Author Index, Subject Index and the full
text of Open Access publications.
A simple method is proposed for predicting the fate of an epidemic outburst from early data. The method is based on the Richards model, and linearizations are proposed for obtaining preliminary values. A second step with nonlinear estimation fed with preliminary values as initial guess values may be attempted if field conditions allow the computation. The method was tested on data from 2001 dengue outbursts in both Havana and Winward Islands (French Polynesia). Predictions were satisfactory and an attempt of true prediction based on daily data for the 2009 H1N1 influenza outburst in the USA was undertaken. Comparison of early predictions with actual values obtained 3 months later suggests that some of the discrepancies are not due to method's inacuracy, but to real improvement of infection rate as the H1N1 outburst proceeded. The method can be applied in any setting where cumulative number of cases is properly recorded.
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to provide you with the best possible experience. They also allow us to analyze user behavior in order to constantly improve the website for you. Info about the privacy policy of IOS Press.
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to provide you with the best possible experience. They also allow us to analyze user behavior in order to constantly improve the website for you. Info about the privacy policy of IOS Press.