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With the networks grow in size and complexity, even a slight fault can cause large and abrupt network system behaviors disorder. Fault prediction and state assessment technology is a monitoring and proactive maintenance security form that can ensure a network smooth running before a failure effect to service quality. We present a belief propagate model of fault-alarm based on the Bayesian belief propagate scheme. It can identify the risk alarm that cause significant impacts and irreversible catastrophic consequences. We show through simulation that our method is validity and accuracy.
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