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Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios

Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios

Ashutosh Jha, Debashis Saha
Copyright: © 2021 |Volume: 12 |Issue: 4 |Pages: 22
ISSN: 1947-9301|EISSN: 1947-931X|EISBN13: 9781799861034|DOI: 10.4018/IJTD.288527
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MLA

Jha, Ashutosh, and Debashis Saha. "Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios." IJTD vol.12, no.4 2021: pp.52-73. http://doi.org/10.4018/IJTD.288527

APA

Jha, A. & Saha, D. (2021). Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios. International Journal of Technology Diffusion (IJTD), 12(4), 52-73. http://doi.org/10.4018/IJTD.288527

Chicago

Jha, Ashutosh, and Debashis Saha. "Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios," International Journal of Technology Diffusion (IJTD) 12, no.4: 52-73. http://doi.org/10.4018/IJTD.288527

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Abstract

Fifth-generation (5G) mobile services entail network densification, having massive MIMO air interfaces operating at millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequencies. Techno-economic analysis for such a complex heterogeneous network (HetNet) is challenging due to uncertain future demand and technical hurdles for ensuring seamless nationwide coverage and capacity. The authors show in this work how a logistic diffusion model may be used to forecast 5G adoption in a country and then utilize those forecasts to perform a techno-economic assessment of 5G deployment. The complete analysis is showcased for a European nation, namely France, for the period 2020-2030. The authors find that, theoretically, both the Capex and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the considered 5G HetNets is cheaper (1/7th) than that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) networks, also translating into higher returns. The sensitivity analysis predicts the average revenue from users (ARPU), spectrum acquisition costs, and spectrum bandwidth as the most influential variables for profitability.

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