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Are Foreclosures Contagious?: An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Franklin County, Ohio, 2001-2008

Are Foreclosures Contagious?: An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Franklin County, Ohio, 2001-2008

Alan T. Murray, Julia Koschinsky, Yin Liu, Sergio J. Rey, Lawrence A. Brown
Copyright: © 2013 |Volume: 4 |Issue: 4 |Pages: 18
ISSN: 1947-9654|EISSN: 1947-9662|EISBN13: 9781466635166|DOI: 10.4018/jagr.2013100102
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MLA

Murray, Alan T., et al. "Are Foreclosures Contagious?: An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Franklin County, Ohio, 2001-2008." IJAGR vol.4, no.4 2013: pp.19-36. http://doi.org/10.4018/jagr.2013100102

APA

Murray, A. T., Koschinsky, J., Liu, Y., Rey, S. J., & Brown, L. A. (2013). Are Foreclosures Contagious?: An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Franklin County, Ohio, 2001-2008. International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research (IJAGR), 4(4), 19-36. http://doi.org/10.4018/jagr.2013100102

Chicago

Murray, Alan T., et al. "Are Foreclosures Contagious?: An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis of Franklin County, Ohio, 2001-2008," International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research (IJAGR) 4, no.4: 19-36. http://doi.org/10.4018/jagr.2013100102

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Abstract

Significant foreclosure activity in a weak housing market area is a sign of trouble, suggesting potential subsequent neighborhood decline. This article focuses on an under-researched question of whether higher foreclosure rates in a neighborhood tend to spill over into adjacent neighborhoods. The authors detail exploratory spatial methods to identify where potential spillover effects occur: kernel density surfaces, space-time local indicators of spatial association (LISA) and LISA Markov. Using data for Franklin County, Ohio the authors find that foreclosure rate hotspots are concentrated in lower-income, more African-American central city areas. The majority of hotspots (around 90%) persist over time and space but about 10% of all hotspots are consistent with contagion effects between neighboring areas. Only 1-3% of neighborhoods experience spillovers as below-average to above-average cluster transitions. In general, contagion effects occur in areas with higher rates of African-Americans, poverty and lower median home values and incomes. However, the authors also observe a sub-trend suggesting possibly accelerated hotspot growth in otherwise comparable Caucasian areas.

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