Modelling Cyber Vulnerability using Epidemic Models

Bao Nguyen

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Paper

Modelling Cyber Vulnerability using Epidemic Models

Topics: Biological and Social Systems Simulation; Decision Support Systems; Security and Military

In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications SIMULTECH - Volume 1, 232-239, 2017 , Madrid, Spain

Author: Bao Nguyen

Affiliation: Defence Research Development Canada and University of Ottawa, Canada

Keyword(s): Cyber Defence, Epidemic Models, Biological Diseases, SIR (Susceptible – Infected – Removed) Model.

Abstract: This paper documents an epidemic model known as SIR (Susceptible – Infected – Removed units). We derive an approximated solution to the differential equations that define the SIR model. Unlike the exact SIR solution, the approximate solution is analytical and has a closed form expression. We use this approximate model as an inspiration to cyber defence. Such a model allows us to investigate the characteristics of the propagation of electronic viruses. That is, we can determine the number of susceptible units, the number of infected units and the number of removed units as a function of time. This information will eventually permit the defence to find ways to eradicate a virus attack and to show how viruses affect the defence effectiveness.

CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

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Paper citation in several formats:

Nguyen, B. (2017). Modelling Cyber Vulnerability using Epidemic Models. In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH; ISBN 978-989-758-265-3; ISSN 2184-2841, SciTePress, pages 232-239. DOI: 10.5220/0006401902320239

@conference{simultech17,
author={Bao Nguyen.},
title={Modelling Cyber Vulnerability using Epidemic Models},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH},
year={2017},
pages={232-239},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0006401902320239},
isbn={978-989-758-265-3},
issn={2184-2841},
}

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - SIMULTECH
TI - Modelling Cyber Vulnerability using Epidemic Models
SN - 978-989-758-265-3
IS - 2184-2841
AU - Nguyen, B.
PY - 2017
SP - 232
EP - 239
DO - 10.5220/0006401902320239
PB - SciTePress