Authors:
Alexandr Y. Petukhov
1
and
Dmitry I. Kaminchenko
2
Affiliations:
1
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics Russian Academy of Science, Miusskaya sq., 4, Moscow, 125047, Russia
;
2
RL “Modeling of Social and Political Processes” Nizhniy Novgorod Lobachevski State University, 603950, Gagarin ave. 23, Nizhniy Novgorod, Russia
Keyword(s):
Protests, Belarus, Society, Diffusion Equations, Langevin Equation, Communicative Field, Social Activity, Networks.
Abstract:
In this article, we propose a model of social activity based on diffusion equations and a comparison of the modeling results with real data of protest activity (based on data in social networks) in Belarus in 2020. A model uses the diffusion Langevin equation. The model is based on the idea that individuals interact in society through a communicative field - h. Besides, the control is introduced into the system through the dissipation function. Protest data indicators were collected using the authors' content analysis of the main hashtags associated with Belarusian protests. Then the results of modeling were compared with the obtained data and analyzed. Based on the modeling we have revealed a general similarity in dynamics and characteristic patterns as well as have made a forecast for the development of the situation in 2021.