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Digital Library of the
European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
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Title: |
Sociodynamic Discrete Choice Applied To Travel Demand: Multi-Agent
Based Simulation And Issues In Estimation |
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Authors: |
Elenna R. Dugundji, László
Gulyás |
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Published in:
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(2012).ECMS
2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann. European
Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012 ISBN:
978-0-9564944-4-3 26th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Shaping reality through simulation Koblenz,
Germany, May 29 – June 1 2012 |
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Citation
format: |
Dugundji, E. R., & Gulyas,
L. (2012). Sociodynamic Discrete Choice Applied To
Travel Demand: Multi-Agent Based Simulation And Issues In Estimation. ECMS
2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann
(pp. 703-711). European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012-0703-0711 |
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DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2012-0703-0711 |
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Abstract: |
This paper discusses a multi-agent
based model of binary choice behavior with interdependence of
decision-makers’ choices. Analytical results established by other authors are
briefly summarized where agent heterogeneity is not explicitly treated. Next
the well- known Erdős-Rényi network class is
considered to introduce agent heterogeneity via an explicit local interaction
structure. Then the model is applied in an example of intercity travel demand
using empirical data to introduce individual agent heterogeneity beyond that
induced by the local interaction structure. Studying the long run behavior of
more than 120,000 multi-agent based simulation runs reveals that the initial
estimation process can be highly sensitive to small variations in network
instantiations. We show that this is an artifact of two issues in estimation,
and highlight particular attention that is due at low network density and at
high network density. Limitations in the present work are summarized and
suggestions for future research efforts are outlined. |
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