Long-Range Prediction of Population by Sex, Age and District Based on Fuzzy Theories

Abstract

A method to predict population by sex, age and district over a long-range period is proposed based on fuzzy theories. First, a fuzzy model is described which is composed of a set of “if-then” rules to estimate the total social increase in each of 402 districts. Specific premises and consequences of the rules were constructed based on actual data, and these rules constitute fuzzy propositions and regression models, respectively. Second, a method to estimate the social increase by sex and age in each district is proposed based on a fuzzy clustering method for dealing with long-range socioeconomic changes in population migration. By the proposed methods, it became possible to predict the population by sex, age and district over a long-range period. Finally, results of the validity test of a constructed population model are presented.