Abstract
The market clearing prices in deregulated electricity markets are volatile. Good market clearing price forecasting will help producers and consumers to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies so as to maximize their profits. Market clearing price prediction is a difficult task since bidding strategies used by market participants are complicated and various uncertainties interact in an intricate way. This paper proposes an adaptively trained neural network to forecast the 24 day-ahead market-clearing prices. The adaptive training mechanism includes a feedback process that allows the artificial neural network to learn from its mistakes and correct its output by adjusting its architecture as new data becomes available. The methodology is applied to the California power market and the results prove the efficiency and practicality of the proposed method.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Schweppe, F., Caramanis, M., Tabors, R., Bohn, R.: Spot pricing of electricity. Kluwer, Norwell (1988)
Contreras, J., EspÃnola, R., Nogales, F.G., Conejo, A.J.: ARIMA models to predict next-day electricity prices. IEEE Trans. Power Systems 18, 1014–1020 (2003)
Nogales, F.G., Contreras, J., Conejo, A.J., EspÃnola, R.: Forecasting next-day electricity prices by time series models. IEEE Trans. Power Systems 17, 342–348 (2002)
Obradovic, Z., Tomsovic, K.: Time series methods for forecasting electricity market pricing. IEEE Power Eng. Soc. Summer Meeting (1999)
Crespo, J., Hlouskova, J., Kossmeier, S., Obersteiner, M.: Forecasting electricity spot prices using linear univariate time series models. App. Energy 77, 87–106 (2002)
Yao, S.J., Song, Y.H.: Prediction of system marginal prices by wavelet transform and neural network. Elect. Mach. Power Syst. 28, 983–993 (2000)
Kim, C.-I., Yu, I.-K., Song, Y.H.: Prediction of system marginal price of electricity using wavelet transform analysis. Energy Convers. Manag. 43, 1839–1851 (2002)
Jau-Jia, G., Luh, P.B.: Market clearing price prediction using a committee machine with adaptive weighting coefficients. In: IEEE Power Eng. Soc. Winter Meeting (2002)
Ni, E., Luh, P.B.: Forecasting power market clearing price and its discrete PDF using a Bayesian-based classification method. In: IEEE Power Eng. Soc. Winter Meeting (2001)
Bunn, D.W.: Forecasting loads and prices in competitive power markets. Proc. IEEE 88, 163–169 (2000)
Angelus, A.: Electricity price forecasting in deregulated markets. Elect. J. 14, 32–41 (2001)
Breipohl, A.M.: Electricity price forecasting models. In: IEEE Power Eng. Soc. Winter Meeting (2002)
Ramsay, B., Wang, A.J.: A neural network based estimator for electricity spot-pricing with particular reference to weekend and public holidays. Neurocomputing 23, 47–57 (1998)
Szkuta, B.R., Sanabria, L.A., Dillon, T.S.: Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks. IEEE Trans. Power Systems 14, 851–857 (1999)
Hong, Y.-Y., Hsiao, C.-Y.: Locational marginal price forecasting in deregulated electricity markets using artificial intelligence. IEE Proc. Gen. Transm. Distr. 149, 621–626 (2002)
Zhang, L., Luh, P.B., Kasiviswanathan, K.: Energy clearing price prediction and confidence interval estimation with cascaded neural networks. IEEE Trans. Power Systems 18, 99–105 (2003)
Arroyo, J.M., Conejo, A.J.: Optimal response of a thermal unit to an electricity spot market. IEEE Trans. Power Systems 15, 1098–1104 (2000)
Chan, C.J.S.: Development of a profit maximization unit commitment program. MSc Dissertation, UMIST, UK (2000)
Kirschen, D.S.: A demand-side view of electricity markets. IEEE Trans. Power Systems 18, 520–527 (2003)
Haykin, S.: Neural networks: a comprehensive foundation. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey (1999)
Demuth, H., Beale, M.: Neural network toobox for use with MATLAB, User’s guide, Version 4. MathWorks, MA (2001)
Sponsored by University of California Energy Institute (UCEI) (accessed October 18, 2005), http://www.ucei.berkeley.edu/ucei/datamine/datamine.htm
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2006 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Georgilakis, P.S. (2006). Market Clearing Price Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Markets Using Adaptively Trained Neural Networks. In: Antoniou, G., Potamias, G., Spyropoulos, C., Plexousakis, D. (eds) Advances in Artificial Intelligence. SETN 2006. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 3955. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/11752912_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/11752912_8
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-34117-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-34118-5
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)