Abstract
Motivated by a preliminary series of expert interviews we consider a possibility measure for the subjective uncertainty on climate model parameter values. We consider 5 key uncertain parameters in the climate model CLIMBER-2 that represents a system of thousands of ordinary differential equations. We derive an emulator for the model and determine the model’s mapping of parameter uncertainty on output uncertainty for climate sensitivity. Climate sensitivity represents a central climate system characteristic important for policy advice, however subject to huge uncertainty. While the ratio of output/input uncertainty induced by a single-parameter perturbation resembles the respective ratio when using a standard probability measure, we find the ratio qualitatively larger in the 5-dimensional situation. We explain this curse of dimension effect by a Gaussian analogue toy system.
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Held, H., von Deimling, T.S. (2006). Transformation of Possibility Functions in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity. In: Lawry, J., et al. Soft Methods for Integrated Uncertainty Modelling. Advances in Soft Computing, vol 37. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-34777-1_40
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-34777-1_40
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-34776-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-34777-4
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