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On the Evaluation of Probabilistic Networks

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Artificial Intelligence in Medicine (AIME 2001)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 2101))

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Abstract

As more and more probabilistic networks are being developed for medical applications, the question arises as to their value for clinical practice. Often the clinical value of a network is expressed as the percentage correct of predicted overall outcome, based upon an evaluation study using real-life patient data. In this paper, we propose another method of evaluation that focuses on intermediate outcomes of interest. We illustrate this method for a real-life probabilistic network for the staging of oesophageal cancer and show that it can provide valuable information in addition to a percentage correct.

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References

  1. F.V. Jensen (1996). An Introduction to Bayesian Networks. UCL Press, London.

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  2. L.C. van der Gaag, S. Renooij, C.L.M. Witteman, B.M.P. Aleman, B.G. Taal (2001). Probabilities for a probabilistic network: A case-study in oesophageal carcinoma, submitted for publication.

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  3. S. Andreassen, F.V. Jensen, K.G. Olesen (1991). Medical expert systems based on causal probabilistic networks. International Journal on Biomedical Computing, vol. 28, pp. 1–30.

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  4. S. Kullback, R.A. Leibler (1951). On information and sufficiency. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, vol. 22, pp. 79–86.

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© 2001 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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van der Gaag, L.C., Renooij, S. (2001). On the Evaluation of Probabilistic Networks. In: Quaglini, S., Barahona, P., Andreassen, S. (eds) Artificial Intelligence in Medicine. AIME 2001. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 2101. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48229-6_62

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48229-6_62

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-42294-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-48229-1

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