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Volcanic Hazards and Early Warning

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Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science

Definition of the Subject

The hazards and risks posed by volcanic eruptions are increasing inexorably with time. This trend is the direct result of continuing exponentialgrowth in global population and progressive encroachment of human settlement and economic development into hazardous volcanic areas. One obvious strategyin reducing volcano risk is the total abandonment of hazardous volcanic regions for human habitation. Clearly, this is utterly unrealistic; many hazardousvolcanoes are located in densely populated areas, for most of which land-use patterns have been fixed by history, culture, and tradition for centuries ormillennia. Moreover, people also are exposed to potential volcano hazards by simply being passengers aboard commercial airliners flying over volcanicregions and possibly encountering a drifting volcanic ash cloud from a powerful explosive eruption [5]. Thus, the only viable option in reducing volcano risk is the timely issuance of early warning of possible...

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Abbreviations

Volcano hazards :

Potentially damaging volcano‐related processes and products that occur during or following eruptions [see [31,37] for overviews]. In quantitative hazards assessments, the probability of a given area being affected by potentially destructive phenomena within a given period of time.

Volcano risk :

Probability of harmful consequences – individual or societal – or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between volcano hazards, human development, and vulnerable conditions. Though definitions vary in detail, risk is conventionally expressed by the general relation: risk = hazards x vulnerability [13].

Vulnerability:

The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards [13].

Volcano status:

The current activity or mode of behavior of a volcano. Status is commonly described as follows: active (having one or more recorded historical eruptions); dormant (currently inactive but having potential for renewed eruptive activity); and extinct (dormant for long time and not expected to erupt again). These terms, while commonly used in the scientific literature, are imperfect and are undergoing serious reexamination within the global volcanological community.

Factual statement:

Following the recommended definition of Swanson et al. [35], is the description of the current status and conditions of a volcano but does not anticipate future events.

Forecast :

As defined by Swanson et al. [35], is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity; forecasts of eruptions and earthquakes sometimes are probabilistic (e. g., [43,47]). A forecast usually covers a longer time period than that for a prediction.

Prediction :

As defined by Swanson et al. [35], is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and, ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. Forecasts and predictions can be either long term (typically years to decades or longer) or short term (typically hours to months).

Volcano unrest :

Visual and (or) measurable physical and (or) chemical changes, surface or subsurface, in the status of the volcano, relative to its “normal” historical behavior; duration of unrest can vary from hours to decades. The initiation or escalation of volcano unrest, regardless of duration, may or may not culminate in eruption.

Magma intrusion:

The subsurface movement or injection of magma (molten rock containing associated crystals and gases) from one part of a volcanic system into another. Typically, an intrusion involves transport of magma from a central zone of storage (i. e., magma “reservoir”) into peripheral, structurally weaker zones (e. g., faults or rifts). Some intrusions culminate in surface eruptive outbreaks, others do not.

Volcano monitoring :

The systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of visual observations and instrumental measurements of changes at volcanoes before, during, and after the onset of volcano unrest and (or) eruptive activity.

“Baseline” monitoring data:

Volcano‐monitoring data acquired for a volcanic system documenting its range of variation during its “normal” behavior prior to volcano unrest and (or) eruptions. The longer the time span covered by “baseline”monitoring , the more diagnostic the dataset for identifying any significant departures from normal behavior in anticipating the possible outcomes of escalating volcano unrest.

Volcanic crisis :

An unstable situation or time of heightened public concern when the level of volcano unrest exceeds its “baseline” level, thereby increasing the prospects of possible eruption at some future, but indeterminate time. In general, during a crisis, emergency managers face a relatively narrow “decision window” in which to take timely mitigative actions to ensure public safety.

“Decision window ”:

The period of time – typically weeks to months, but can be longer – during a developing volcanic crisis between the onset or escalation of volcano unrest. During this time, emergency managers are under high‐stress political and public pressure to make decisions regarding mitigative actions, including possible evacuation of populations at risk.

Warning :

An official message issued by government authorities, usually given to a specific community or communities when a direct response to a volcanic threat is required. To be useful, warnings must be credible and effectively communicated – in clear, easily understandable language – with sufficient lead-time, ideally, well before the volcano unrest escalates into a volcanic crisis.

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Acknowledgments

This article has benefited from constructive reviews and helpful suggestions by L. J. Patrick Muffler and Fred Klein (both of the USGeological Survey, Menlo Park) on an earlier draft. To them, I offer them my sincere thanks. The views expressed in this article have been shaped by mypersonal involvement in responses to several of the volcanic crises in recent decades, and by enlightening and instructive interactions and discussionswith many colleagues in the global volcanological community.

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  1. Volcano Hazards Team, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, USA

    Robert I. Tilling

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  1. RAMTECH LIMITED, 122 Escalle Lane, Larkspur, CA, 94939, USA

    Robert A. Meyers Ph. D. (Editor-in-Chief) (Editor-in-Chief)

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Tilling, R.I. (2009). Volcanic Hazards and Early Warning. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_581

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