Green Transportation Strategies and Impact Evaluation Using System Dynamic Modeling

Abstract

Owing to fierce global warming, carbon reduction and energy saving have become the common responsibility of the international community. According to the statistical report in 2006 by International Energy Agency (IEA), many developed and developing countries, with manufacturing based economy, generate much higher carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions comparing to the other regions. The IEA reported statistical information reveals that there is much to be improved in reducing CO₂ emissions in the industrial countries. Thereafter, Taiwan government also passed the Sustainable Energy Policy on World Environment Day in 2008 and committed to improve energy efficiency, develop clean energy, and ensure stable energy supply. Specifically, Taiwan has planned 10 benchmarking programs with 35 sub-projects in 2009 and announced that 2010 is the year of energy saving and carbon reduction. The objective of this paper is to develop a cost-benefit evaluation methodology to guide low carbon policy development. First, we use the input-output analysis and location quotient methods from top to bottom level to effectively assess the organization’s carbon footprint in a given region. In our in-depth case study, we apply the methods to Taiwan’s Penghu County’s (Taiwan’s largest island) low carbon island development project. Based on the assessment of carbon emissions in the given region, this research applies system dynamics (SD) approach to construct the mathematical model showing the causal feedback relationships for the island’s green transportation development. The causal feedback loop diagram is defined and used to analyze the effectiveness of required investment cost and the corresponding benefits for carbon reduction via green transportation strategy. Finally, the SD model is constructed and the policy scenarios are simulated to evaluate the time-varying impacts of proposed green transportation strategies.