Skip to main content

Price Prediction with CNN and Limit Order Book Data

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Applied Computer Sciences in Engineering (WEA 2018)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 915))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

This work introduces how to use Limit Order Book Data (LOB) and transaction data for short-term forecasting of stock prices. LOB registers all trade intentions from market participants, as a result, it contains more market information that could enhance predictions. We will be using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), which are good at pattern recognition on images. In order to accomplish the proposed task we will make an image-like representation of LOB and transaction data, which will feed up into the CNN, therefore it can recognize hidden patterns to classify Financial Time Series (FTS) in short-term periods. Data enclose information from 11 NYSE instruments, including stocks, ETF and ADR. We will present step by step methodology for encoding financial time series into an image-like representation. Results present an impressive performance, 74.15% in Directional Accuracy (DA).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Some considerations should be done, particularly related to the dimensionality of the FTS.

  2. 2.

    Bivariate if volumes are included.

  3. 3.

    For full details please refer to [18].

  4. 4.

    We used other DL topologies.

  5. 5.

    Data provided by DataDrivenMarket Corporation.

References

  1. Arévalo, A., Nino, J., León, D., Hernandez, G., Sandoval, J.: Deep learning and wavelets for high-frequency price forecasting. In: Shi, Y., et al. (eds.) ICCS 2018. LNCS, vol. 10861, pp. 385–399. Springer, Cham (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93701-4_29

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  2. Arévalo, A., Niño, J., Hernández, G., Sandoval, J.: High-frequency trading strategy based on deep neural networks. In: Huang, D.-S., Han, K., Hussain, A. (eds.) ICIC 2016. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 9773, pp. 424–436. Springer, Cham (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42297-8_40

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  3. Arnold, L., Rebecchi, S., Chevallier, S., Paugam-Moisy, H.: An introduction to deep learning. In: ESANN (2011). https://www.elen.ucl.ac.be/Proceedings/esann/esannpdf/es2011-4.pdf

  4. Chao, J., Shen, F., Zhao, J.: Forecasting exchange rate with deep belief networks. In: The 2011 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, pp. 1259–1266. IEEE, July 2011. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=6033368 ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=6033368

  5. Chen, M., et al.: Data, information, and knowledge in visualization. IEEE Comput. Graph. Appl. 29(1), 12–19 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Cont, R., Stoikov, S., Talreja, R.: A stochastic model for order book dynamics. Oper. Res. 58, 549–563 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. De Goijer, J., Hyndman, R.: 25 years of time series forecasting. J. Forecast. 22, 443–473 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Ding, X., Zhang, Y., Liu, T., Duan, J.: Deep learning for event-driven stock prediction. In: Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ICJAI) (2015). http://ijcai.org/papers15/Papers/IJCAI15-329.pdf

  9. Gould, M.D., Porter, M.A., Williams, S., McDonald, M., Fenn, D.J., Howison, S.D.: Limit order books. Quant. Finance 13, 42 (2010)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Hamid, S., Habib, A.: Financial forecasting with neura networks. Acad. Account. Financ. Stud. J. 18, 37–56 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Huang, G., Huang, G.B., Song, S., You, K.: Trends in extreme learning machines: a review. Neural Netw. 61, 32–48 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Längkvist, M., Karlsson, L., Loutfi, A.: A review of unsupervised feature learning and deep learning for time-series modeling. Pattern Recognit. Lett. 42, 11–24 (2014). http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167865514000221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Niño-Peña, J.H., Hernández-Pérez, G.J.: Price direction prediction on high frequency data using deep belief networks. In: Figueroa-García, J.C., López-Santana, E.R., Ferro-Escobar, R. (eds.) WEA 2016. CCIS, vol. 657, pp. 74–83. Springer, Cham (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50880-1_7

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  14. Sandoval, J.: Empirical Shape Function of the Limit-Order Books of the USD/COP Spot Market. In: ODEON, no. 7 (2013). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2408087

  15. Sandoval, J., Nino, J., Hernandez, G., Cruz, A.: Detecting informative patterns in financial market trends based on visual analysis. Procedia Comput. Sci. 80, 752–761 (2016). http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050916308407. International Conference on Computational Science 2016, ICCS 2016, 6–8 June 2016, San Diego, California, USA

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Shen, F., Chao, J., Zhao, J.: Forecasting exchange rate using deep belief networks and conjugate gradient method. Neurocomput. 167(C), 243–253 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2015.04.071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Takeuchi, L., Lee, Y.: Applying Deep Learning to Enhance Momentum Trading Strategies in Stocks (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Wang, Z., Oates, T.: Encoding Time Series as Images for Visual Inspection and Classification Using Tiled Convolutional Neural Networks (2015). https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/32e7/b2ddc781b571fa023c205753a803565543e7.pdf

  19. Yeh, S., Wang, C., Tsai, M.: Corporate Default Prediction via Deep Learning (2014). http://teacher.utaipei.edu.tw/~cjwang/slides/ISF2014.pdf

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jaime Niño .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Niño, J., Arévalo, A., Leon, D., Hernandez, G., Sandoval, J. (2018). Price Prediction with CNN and Limit Order Book Data. In: Figueroa-García, J., López-Santana, E., Rodriguez-Molano, J. (eds) Applied Computer Sciences in Engineering. WEA 2018. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 915. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00350-0_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00350-0_11

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-00349-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-00350-0

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics