Abstract
We consider the task of predicting the solar power output for the next day from previous solar power data. We propose EN-meta, a meta-learning ensemble of neural networks where the meta-learners are trained to predict the errors of the ensemble members for the new day, and these errors are used to dynamically weight the contribution of the ensemble members in the final prediction. We evaluate the performance of EN-meta on Australian solar data for two years and compare its accuracy with state-of-the-art single models, classical ensemble methods and EN-meta versions without the meta-learning component. The results showed that EN-meta was the most accurate method and thus highlight the potential benefit of using meta-learning for solar power forecasting.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Pedro, H.T.C., Coimbra, C.F.M.: Assessment of forecasting techniques for solar power production with no exogenous inputs. Sol. Energy 86, 2017–2028 (2012)
Rana, M., Koprinska, I., Agelidis, V.: Univariate and multivariate methods for very short-term solar photovoltaic power forecasting. Energy Convers. Manag. 121, 380–390 (2016)
Chu, Y., Urquhart, B., Gohari, S.M.I., Pedro, H.T.C., Kleissl, J., Coimbra, C.F.M.: Short-term reforecasting of power output from a 48 MWe solar PV plant. Sol. Energy 112, 68–77 (2015)
Chen, C., Duan, S., Cai, T., Liu, B.: Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather type classification using artificial neural networks. Sol. Energy 85, 2856–2870 (2011)
Rana, M., Koprinska, I., Agelidis, V.G.: 2D-interval forecasts for solar power production. Sol. Energy 122, 191–203 (2015)
Wang, Z., Koprinska, I.: Solar power prediction with data source weighted nearest neighbours. In: International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) (2017)
Oliveira, M., Torgo, L.: Ensembles for time series forecasting. In: Sixth Asian Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 360–370 (2015)
Wang, Z., Koprinska, I., Troncoso, A., Martinez-Alvarez, F.: Static and dynamic ensembles of neural networks for solar power forecasting. In: International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) (2018)
Cerqueira, V., Torgo, L., Pinto, F., Soares, C.: Arbitrated ensemble for time series forecasting. In: Ceci, M., Hollmén, J., Todorovski, L., Vens, C., Džeroski, S. (eds.) ECML PKDD 2017. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 10535, pp. 478–494. Springer, Cham (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71246-8_29
Kuncheva, L.: Combining Pattern Classifiers: Methods and Algorithms. Wiley, Hoboken (2014)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Wang, Z., Koprinska, I. (2018). Solar Power Forecasting Using Dynamic Meta-Learning Ensemble of Neural Networks. In: Kůrková, V., Manolopoulos, Y., Hammer, B., Iliadis, L., Maglogiannis, I. (eds) Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2018. ICANN 2018. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11139. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01418-6_52
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01418-6_52
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-01417-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-01418-6
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)