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Prediction of Journey Destination for Travelers of Urban Public Transport: A Comparison Model Study

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Intelligent Transport Systems, From Research and Development to the Market Uptake (INTSYS 2018)

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Abstract

In public transport, smart card-based ticketing system allows to redesign the UPT network, by providing customized transport services, or incentivize travelers to change specific patterns. However, in open systems, to develop personalized connections the journey destination must be known before the end of the travel. Thus, to obtain that knowledge, in this study three models (Top-K, NB, and J48) were applied using different groups of travelers of an urban public transport network located in a medium-sized European metropolitan area (Porto, Portugal). Typical travelers were selected from the segmentation of transportation card signatures, and groups were defined based on the traveler age or economic conditions. The results show that is possible to predict the journey’s destination based on the past with an accuracy rate that varies, on average, from 20% in the worst scenarios to 65% in the best.

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Acknowledgments

The Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) funded the Doctoral scholarship of V. Costa (Ref. PD/BD/128065/2016) and the Post-Doctoral scholarship of T. Fontes (Ref. SFRH/BPD/109426/2015). The authors also acknowledge to the transport providers of Oporto, TIP, STCP, Metro do Porto and Transdev which provide travel data for the project, and also to our partner in the project, OPT company.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INESC TEC - INESC Technology and Science, Porto, Portugal

    Vera Costa, Tânia Fontes, José Luís Borges & Teresa Galvão Dias

  2. FEUP - Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Vera Costa, José Luís Borges & Teresa Galvão Dias

Authors
  1. Vera Costa
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  2. Tânia Fontes
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  3. José Luís Borges
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  4. Teresa Galvão Dias
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vera Costa .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal

    Joao Carlos Ferreira

  2. ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal

    Ana Lúcia Martins

  3. University of Minho, Guimaraes, Portugal

    Vitor Monteiro

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© 2019 ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering

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Costa, V., Fontes, T., Borges, J.L., Dias, T.G. (2019). Prediction of Journey Destination for Travelers of Urban Public Transport: A Comparison Model Study. In: Ferreira, J., Martins, A., Monteiro, V. (eds) Intelligent Transport Systems, From Research and Development to the Market Uptake. INTSYS 2018. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, vol 267. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14757-0_9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14757-0_9

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-14756-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-14757-0

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