Abstract
Refugees and migrants arrivals in the Mediterranean since 2014 have resulted in humanitarian relief operations at national and international levels. Decision making by relevant actors in all aspects of humanitarian response impacts on the well-being of People of Concern (PoC). Site management decisions take into account a wide range of criteria in diverse sectors, including protection of PoC. Criteria address basic relief response, such as water, sanitation and nutrition, social characteristics, as well as protection of PoC. In particular, site management decisions may affect relationships between PoC, leading to tensions or peaceful coexistence between PoC. In this paper a decision making process is proposed for the forecasting of emotions in PoC sites in order to assist site management decisions, particularly in the context of avoidance of tensions. The method uses Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) to forecast emotions based on input data obtained from site management reports. Historical data from site management reports in Greece have been used for deriving the indicators used in the input layer of the designed FCM. The proposed method will be applied to forecast potential tensions in PoC sites in Greece.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
UNHCR data portal (2017). https://data2.unhcr.org. Accessed 17 Nov 2017
SPHERE: Sphere Project, Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response (2011). http://www.ifrc.org/docs/idrl/I1027EN.pdf. Accessed 20 Nov 2017
UNHCR emergency handbook: UNHCR Handbook for Emergencies. https://www.unicef.org/emerg/files/UNHCR_handbook.pdf. Accessed 20 Nov 2017
Gutjahr, W.J., Nolz, P.C.: Multicriteria optimization in humanitarian aid. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 252, 351–366 (2016)
Drakaki, M., Gören, H.G., Tzionas, P.: An intelligent multi-agent system using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and axiomatic design as a decision support method for refugee settlement siting. In: Dargam, F., Delias, P., Linden, I., Mareschal, B. (eds.) ICDSST 2018. LNBIP, vol. 313, pp. 15–25. Springer, Cham (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90315-6_2
Drakaki, M., Gören, H.G., Tzionas, P.: An intelligent multi-agent based decision support system for refugee settlement siting. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 31, 576–588 (2018)
Drakaki, M., Gören, H.G., Tzionas, P.: Comparison of fuzzy multi criteria decision making approaches in an intelligent multi-agent system for refugee siting. In: Świątek, J., Borzemski, L., Wilimowska, Z. (eds.) ISAT 2018. AISC, vol. 853, pp. 361–370. Springer, Cham (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99996-8_33
Çetinkaya, C., Özceylan, E., Erbaş, M., Kabak, M.: GIS-based fuzzy MCDA approach for siting refugee camp: a case study for southeastern Turkey. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 18, 218–231 (2016)
Plutchik, R.: A general psychoevolutionary theory of emotion in emotion: theory, research, and experience. In: Plutchik, R., Kellerman, H. (eds.), vol. 1. Academic Press (1980)
Mayne, T.J., Ramsey, J.: Emotions: Current Issues and Future Directions. The Guilford Press, New York City (2001)
Guojiang, W.; Xiaoxiao, W., Kechang, F.: Behavior decision model of intelligent agent based on artificial emotion. In: Advanced Computer Control (ICACC) (2010)
Salmeron, J.L.: Fuzzy cognitive maps for artificial emotions forecasting. Appl. Soft Comput. 12, 3704–3710 (2012)
Thayer, R.E.: The Biopsychology of Mood and Arousal. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1989)
Kowalczuk, Z., Czubenko, M.: Computational approaches to modeling artificial emotion – an overview of the proposed solutions, frontiers in robotics and AI (2016). https://doi.org/10.3389/frobt.2016.00021
Horn, R.: A study of the emotional and psychological well-being of refugees in Kakuma refugee camp, Kenya. Int. J. Migr. Health Soc. Care 5, 20–32 (2010)
Kosko, B.: Fuzzy cognitive maps. Int. J. Man Mach. Stud. 24, 65–75 (1986)
Khan, M.S., Quaddus, M.: Group decision support using fuzzy cognitive maps for causal reasoning. Group Decis. Negot. 13, 463–480 (2004)
Papageorgiou, E.I., Salmeron, J.L.: A review of fuzzy cognitive maps research, during the last decade. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 21, 66–79 (2013)
Xiao, Z., Chen, W., Li, L.: An integrated FCM and fuzzy soft set for supplier selection problem based on risk evaluation. Appl. Math. Model. 36, 1444–1454 (2012)
Andreou, A.S., Mateou, N.H., Zombanakis, G.A.: Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps. Soft. Comput. 9, 194–210 (2005)
Papageorgiou, E.I., Hatwágnerb, M.F., Buruzsc, A., Kóczy, L.T.: A concept reduction approach for fuzzy cognitive map models in decision making and management. Neurocomputing 232, 16–33 (2017)
Russell, J.A.: A circumplex model of affect. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 39, 1161–1178 (1980)
Giardino, W.J., Eban-Rothschild, A., Christoffel, D.J., Li, S.-B., Malenka, R.C., de Lecea, L.: Parallel circuits from the bed nuclei of stria terminalis to the lateral hypothalamus drive opposing emotional states. Neuroscience 21, 1084–1095 (2018)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Drakaki, M., Gören, H.G., Tzionas, P. (2019). Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a Tool to Forecast Emotions in Refugee and Migrant Communities for Site Management. In: Freitas, P., Dargam, F., Moreno, J. (eds) Decision Support Systems IX: Main Developments and Future Trends. EmC-ICDSST 2019. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 348. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18819-1_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18819-1_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-18818-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-18819-1
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)