Optimization Problems of Economic Structural Adjustment and Problem of Stability

Abstract

The paper emphasizes the following problems: stability of mapping defined by the dynamic model in numerical optimization problems based on this model and numerical methods for evaluating such stability. The use of such numerical methods is illustrated in solving problems of structural adjustment and economic growth of countries belonging to an economic union. The solution of these problems is based on the developed dynamic multi-country computable general equilibrium model describing the functioning of nine regions, including five countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The initial data of the model contain the sets of consistent social accounts matrices (SAM) for the historical and forecast periods built based on the following data: GTAP database, national input-output tables, international trade, and IMF forecasts for the main macroeconomic indicators. Using the proposed numerical methods, the stability of the mappings of the exogenous parameters values of the calibrated model into the values of its endogenous variables was estimated. The approach of selecting promising sectors of the economy of the EAEU countries was proposed and implemented. Based on the model a number of parametric control problems were formulated and solved for evaluating the optimal values of fiscal policy instruments both at the level of individual EAEU countries and the EAEU as a whole. These problems are aimed at structural adjustment and economic growth by stimulating the growth of output of selected promising sectors of the EAEU countries.