Abstract
In risk analysis, extremes natural phenomena become hazardous when they strike human beings, tangible and intangible assets. In urban areas, the exponential growth of population and its density makes cities more exposed to the effects of natural impacts that could become catastrophic and generate high-risk situations. As a result, the current situation makes the population and its economic and social activities highly exposed to the different natural risks. In the last 40 years, the Exposure of built-up area and population to natural hazards doubled: now seismic hazard could affect 2.7 billion, volcanoes eruptions 414 million people and tropical cyclones over 1.6 billion.
Authors consider Exposure as the quantity and quality of the different anthropic elements (population, settlement system, infrastructure network, elements of the environment) of a given territorial area and whose conditions and operation can be damaged, altered or destroyed by natural hazards. Therefore, the exposure assessment of the different urban functions becomes the basis for implementing risk reduction interventions. The presented research defines a methodology to study the location and distribution of population (spatial and temporal dynamic entity), the different urban functions, human assets and their activities. In particular, authors analyze the statistical possibility that human beings are in an area at risk in a well-defined period of time (24 h a day, 7 days a week and 365 a year). It depends on city structure, functions distribution, its widespread elements and through these elements authors estimate Urban Exposure.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Average value in new buildings according to Italian urban laws.
- 2.
The productive/industrial sector are not evaluated, since they are no longer present in the urban fabric of most Italian cities, same for the strategic services (i.e. hospitals and schools) because they are regulated by specific and restrictive risk reduction rules.
- 3.
It is the classical historical cities block deriving from ancient Roman camp grid.
- 4.
In Italy, this value is often used in the analyses carried out by the Municipalities for the average calculation of the users of the specific sector.
References
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction): Terminology: basic terms of disaster risk reduction. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction secretariat, Geneva (2009)
Pesaresi, M., et al.: Atlas of the Human Planet 2017: Global Exposure to Natural Hazards, EUR 28556 (2017)
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2012)
UN-DESA (Department of economic and social affairs - Population Division): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352). UN-DESA (2014)
UN-DESA (Department of economic and social affairs): Risks of exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters at the city level: a global overview. Population Division, Technical paper no. 2015/02. UN-DESA (2015)
Gazzola, V.: Valutazione multi scala dell’Esposizione al Rischio. In: Atti della XIX Conferenza Nazionale 2016 SIU. Cambiamenti. Responsabilità e strumenti per l’urbanistica al servizio del paese, Workshop, vol. 4, pp. 582–587. Planum Publisher, Roma-Milano (2016)
Venco, E.M.: L’Esposizione nell’analisi del rischio in ambito pianificatorio. In: Atti della XIX Conferenza Nazionale SIU. Cambiamenti. Responsabilità e strumenti per l’urbanistica al servizio del paese, Catania, 16–18 giugno 2016, pp. 641–648. Planum Publisher, Roma-Milano (2017)
De Lotto, R., Gazzola, V., Venco, E.M.: Exposure and Risk reduction strategy: the role of Functional Change. In: Margani, G., et al. (eds.) Proceedings of the International Conference on Seismic and Energy Renovation for Sustainable Cities (SER4SC 2018), Catania, Italy, pp. 319–330. EdicomEdizioni, Montefalcone (Go) (2018)
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft (Alliance Development Works), United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS): WorldRiskReport 2014. United Nations University EHS Institute and the Alliance Development Works, Berlin (2011–2014)
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and Ruhr University Bochum – Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV): WorldRiskReport 2018
Chen, Q.-F., Chen, Y., Liu, J., Chen, L.: Quick and approximate estimation of earthquake loss based on macroscopic index of exposure and population distribution. Nat. Hazards 15, 217–229 (1997)
De Lotto, R., Gazzola, V., Gossenberg, S., Morelli di Popolo, C., Venco, E.M.: Proposal to reduce natural risks: analytic network process to evaluate efficiency of city planning strategies. In: Gervasi, O., et al. (eds.) ICCSA 2016. LNCS, vol. 9789, pp. 650–664. Springer, Cham (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42089-9_46
Per, A.F., Mozas, J., Arpa, J.: DBook. Density, Data, Diagrams, Dwellings. A visual analysis of 64 collective housing projects. a+t ediciones, Spain (2007)
Mozas, J., Per, A.F: Density: New Collective Housing. a+t ediciones, Spain (2006)
UNI 10339:1995 - 30/06/1995 - Impianti aeraulici a fini di benessere. Generalità, classificazione e requisiti. Regole per la richiesta d’offerta, l’offerta, l’ordine e la fornitura
ISTAT (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica): Forme, livelli e dinamiche dell’urbanizzazione in Italia. Territorio, letture statistiche. ISTAT (2017)
Aubrecht, C., Steinnocher, K., Hollaus, M., Wagner, W.: Interacting earth observation and GIScience for high resolution spatial and functional modelling of urban land use. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 33, 15–25 (2009)
Aubrecht, C., Ozceylan, D., Steinnocher, K., Freire, S.: Multi-level geospatial modelling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators. Nat. Hazards 68, 147–163 (2013)
Corbane, C., Gamba, P., Pesaresi, M., Pittore, M., Wieland, M.: Current and innovative methods to define exposure. In: Poljanšek, K., Marín Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T., Clark, I. (eds.) Science for Disaster Risk Management 2017: Knowing Better and Losing Less, EUR 28034 EN, chap. 2.2. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (2017)
Lloyd, C.T., Sorichetta, A., Tatem, A.J.: High resolution global gridded data for use in population studies. Scientific Data 4 (170001) (2017)
Pesaresi, M., Melchiorri, M., Siragusa, A., Kemper, T.: Atlas of the Human Planet — Mapping Human Presence on Earth with the Global Human Settlement Layer, EUR 28116 EN. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (2016)
United Nation Habitat III Secretariat. NEW Urban Agenda (2016)
OECD. http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/it/#/11111111111. Accessed 16 Feb 2019
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
De Lotto, R., Pietra, C., Venco, E.M. (2019). Risk Analysis: A Focus on Urban Exposure Estimation. In: Misra, S., et al. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2019. ICCSA 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11620. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24296-1_33
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24296-1_33
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-24295-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-24296-1
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)