Cognitive Maps for Risk Estimation in Software Development Projects

Abstract

This article is the result of research in terms of risk management in the implementation of software development projects. In the conditions of active digitalization of the economy and the growth of both the number and budgets of projects in the software industry, this study is relevant. The article provides a detailed comparative analysis of existing methods and tools for project risk management, the authors define the comparison criteria and scale. To take into account the industry features of it projects, especially in the early stages of implementation, the authors propose a comprehensive approach, which includes an assessment of the cost and complexity of projects. There was also built a cognitive map of risks of software development projects. Twenty projects of different scale and type, including projects on development of technical documentation, on completion of already ready solutions were evaluated. The most accurate and significant results were achieved in the framework of projects for the development of reporting documentation. At the same time, the complexity of the project Manager involved in the calculation of risks and cost and complexity, decreased by 3 times. Author acknowledges support from the MEPhI Academic Excellence Project (Contract No. 02.a03.21.0005).