Prediction of Time-Delay GM (1, N) Cost Trend of Power Grid Engineering Based on Macro-environmental Impact

Abstract

As power grid construction projects gradually increase and their scales continue to expand, the macro-environmental factors that affect their cost levels have become more diverse and complicated. In order to accurately and effectively grasp the change trend of power grid project cost, this paper proposes a method for predicting the macroscopic cost trend of power grid project based on time lag GM (1, N). This paper analyzes and finds out the factors that affect the cost of substation project, overhead cable project, and ground cable project, and uses these factors as input variables of the time-lag gray prediction model to establish a power grid project macro-cost trend prediction model based on time-lag GM (1, N). And actual project data are used to train and verify the prediction model. Calculation examples show that the model can accurately and quickly predict the cost of substation project, overhead cable project, and transmission line project under different economic regions and different voltage levels. The model can also provide an effective reference for the compilation of annual and quarterly power grid project standard prices.