Dynamic Course of Action Analysis with Uncertainty of Information in Wargaming Environment

Abstract

Human information interaction (HII) focuses on the ability to capture, communicate, and understand the problems, tasks, ideas, and concepts which can be applied to ultimately generate courses of action (CoA) and make decisions. The complexities in each part of HII make it a challenging area to research. One of these challenges is the inherent variability that comes with human decision makers. Another challenge is the nuances of the interactions needed to solve the problem or complete a task. Additionally, there is also the challenge of the imperfect nature of information. These challenges, like the elements of HII, are intertwined, which adds to the complexity of the problem. Previous research in the information element and its imperfect nature has led to work in creating an uncertainty of information (UoI) paradigm, which is represented as a numerical value. A strength of the UoI concept is the descriptors which are used to express the causal reasoning behind the uncertainty. These descriptors are taken from Gershon’s terminology and act as taxonomies to enable an easier way of understanding and communicating uncertainty, particularly for decision making. As this research is expanded, the utilization of human computer interaction (HCI) as a technique that allows for the investigation of UoI and the elements of HII dynamically is extremely important. The HCI technique utilized for this work is the wargaming simulation environment. Through wargaming, we can investigate and understand how CoA and their corresponding decisions (when there is UoI) are made so that the mission objectives are optimally achieved.