Abstract
There are few studies concerning the propagation of COVID-19 pandemic, besides theoretical models that have produced alarming predictions. These models assume wave-like propagation dynamics on an uniform medium. However, it appears that COVID-19 follows unexpected propagation dynamics. In this paper we consider the state-wise data on COVID-19 mortality in Brazil provided by government sources. Conventional propagation models tell us that the pandemic should propagate over the neighboring states from the initial cases in Sao Paulo. We compute several measures of correlation and prediction by random forests finding that the patterns of propagation do not correlate well with the graph distances defined by the spatial neighborhood of the states. We think that this phenomenon deserves further attention in order to understand COVID-19 pandemic.
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Graña, M., Badiola-Zabala, G., Lopez-Guede, J.M. (2021). Counter Intituive COVID-19 Propagation Dynamics in Brazil. In: Sanjurjo González, H., Pastor López, I., García Bringas, P., Quintián, H., Corchado, E. (eds) Hybrid Artificial Intelligent Systems. HAIS 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12886. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86271-8_36
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