Abstract
Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall, well advance in time to take preventive measures timely. In this article, we develop a deep learning model based on the combination of a Convolutional Neural network and a Long Short-Term memory network to predict the landfall’s location and time of a tropical cyclone in six ocean basins of the world with high accuracy. We have used high-resolution spacial reanalysis data, ERA5, maintained by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The model takes any 9 h, 15 h, or 21 h of data, during the progress of a tropical cyclone and predicts its landfall’s location in terms of latitude and longitude and time in hours. For 21 h of data, we achieve mean absolute error for landfall’s location prediction in the range of 66.18–158.92 km and for landfall’s time prediction in the range of 4.71–8.20 h across all six ocean basins. The model can be trained in just 30 to 45 min (based on ocean basin) and can predict the landfall’s location and time in a few seconds, which makes it suitable for real time prediction.
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Kumar, S., Biswas, K., Pandey, A.K. (2021). Predicting Landfall’s Location and Time of a Tropical Cyclone Using Reanalysis Data. In: Farkaš, I., Masulli, P., Otte, S., Wermter, S. (eds) Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2021. ICANN 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12894. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86380-7_30
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